We enter this quarter with several key negotiations pending, a world bracing itself for military confrontation in the Persian Gulf and yet more unpredictability from the White House.
“We have been warning of this escalatory behavior by Iran for some time,” said Stratfor’s Vice President of Global Analysis, Reva Goujon. “As cornered as Iran has been by sanctions, it is now holding the global economy hostage through these recent attacks and Iran is prepared to absorb the risk of a limited military clash with the United States and Saudi Arabia.”
Additional geopolitical developments Stratfor forecasts for the fourth quarter include:
- What 2020 means for Donald Trump’s trade strategy and the global GDP impact of the president’s trade wars;
- The looming possibility of a No-Deal Brexit, a resignation by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and ongoing trade uncertainty in both the UK and the EU;
- Persistent unrest in Hong Kong is unlikely to rise to the point of drawing a heavy-handed intervention by Beijing.
Countries also highlighted in the Stratfor forecast include Venezuela, Germany, Japan, Mexico and Vietnam.
Stratfor has a reputation for accurate forecasting. Stratfor’s correct Q3 calls include:
The complete 2019 Fourth Quarter Forecast is now available to Stratfor enterprise, team and individual members at Stratfor Worldview.
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